The 2019-2020 NBA was one of the most exciting and enjoyable seasons in my recent memory. Personally, I enjoyed it as my Bucks were having an incredible year led by Giannis and complemented with a fantastic supporting cast. Los Angeles came into the spotlight as the Lakers and Clippers each secured dynamic duos in Lebron/Anthony Davis and Paul George/Kawhi. Luka continued to shine heading up an exciting Mavs offense that looked like it could make some postseason noise. Rookies Ja Morant and Zion Williamson exploded onto the scene, each leaving breath-taking highlights and fan bases eager for their growth as players. Jumbled in between we had Jimmy Butler leading a fiesty Miami Heat team, Mike D'Antoni doubling down on Moreyball, Andrew Wiggins finally out of Minnesota, players acting like "slugs", and a surprising three-headed guard combo in OKC. Obviously everything changed in March with COVID-19 forcing the suspension of the season and has left many questions about the finality of this season up in the air. Teams that had been successful and were primed for a championship run were suddenly in jeopardy of having an entire season mean nothing. Instead, the NBA has implemented the bubble, and this season should shake out to be one of the more exciting finishes ever. Additionally, the race for individual awards will be hotly debated. Despite another incredible year from Giannis, his MVP throne seems to be hotly contested, and while this isn't to say that some players like LeBron haven't had incredible years, I think it's clear to see that Giannis should be MVP again.
I'm going to primarily compare Giannis to the most common other choice as MVP this year in LeBron James, and last year's alleged MVP snub James Harden. All the graphs are from basketball-reference.com which has a great player comparison tool.
First things first, it's easy to see all these players had great years. Harden can score like crazy while still facilitating the ball, Giannis dominates the paint, swallowing rebounds and bullying defenders, and a 35-year old LeBron is almost averaging a triple-double (which although they aren't as impressive as they used to be, still is fairly difficult). Comparing points we can give an edge to Harden, with Giannis and James trailing, but all three have respectable averages. All three influence the game with their play-making, with LeBron a bit above the rest in those terms. Giannis is leaps and bounds above the rest in rebounds, and steals and blocks I won't dwell on too much as sometimes these stats can be chased at the expense of actual good defense. While all three seem to have their particular strong areas, there is one quick caveat I would like to point out here, and that is minutes. Giannis averages just under 31/game while LeBron averages 35/game and Harden almost 37/game. While initially Giannis can get nitpicked for having a statline that to some can seem underwhelming when compared with LeBron or Harden, he is playing considerably less time than either of them. This is obviously all part of Coach Bud's system in not-overworking his star player, but often gets overlooked when comparing stats. Sure, Harden is averaging more points because he's playing 6 more minutes every night. Houston is one of the top teams in terms of pace and those 6 minutes can add to a lot more opportunities to accumulate stats for someone like Harden who objectively can look better on a per game basis.
Diving deeper into some advanced stats we can see Giannis rise above the rest. While PER does tend to skew towards big men, Giannis was having the 7th best year ever according to it. The only players ahead of him are a 24-year old LeBron, a few years of all-time stat-sheet stuffer Wilt Chamberlain, and two prime Michael Jordan years. Giannis was clearly having an all-time great year. We can see the absurd rates at which he absorbs rebounds, turns the ball over less (although I wouldn't exactly consider it a significant difference), and is only slightly behind is terms of True Shooting %, which is hurt by an oddly poor year from the line for Giannis. Looking at some other advanced stats we see he is leading in win shares/48 by a large margin. On the flip side we can look at defensive win shares where he also lead the league. We can look at his box plus/minus, which is equally absurd where he is 2.5 points better than the next person which happened to be Harden and Kawhi tied at 9.0. Plain and simple, when Giannis is on the court, his team is consistently and drastically better on both sides than when he is not. There are plenty of other advanced stats like defensive PIPM or win probability added which I don't fully understand that indicate Giannis to be at an elite level.
While I may be biased, I think we can see that by looking at regular stats, adjusting for playing time each game, and then taking a deeper dive into advanced stats we can see Giannis deserves to be MVP in back to back seasons. Even if you're a part of the old school ideology of the best player on the best team, that description would still make Giannis your MVP. While it appears that this article is just another way for me to air my grievances on the lack of media attention around the Bucks and Giannis who are having otherworldly years, I do want to reiterate that this should in no way minimize what LeBron and Harden have been doing this year. Despite James Harden being my mortal enemy and the entire antithesis of how I want basketball to be played, he is obviously a very good player who adds tremendous value to a team. Also what LeBron is doing at his age, in his 17th year after having been to the Finals in eight of the last nine years is truly remarkable. LeBron James may be an all-around incredible athlete, but I believe he hasn't put together a more valuable year than Giannis.
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