It's no secret the Bucks had a rough bubble. After cruising through the regular season, the team had a 3+ month hiatus before resuming play in Orlando. The Bucks never seemed to find their footing in the eight bubble games, but still, the team and fans were confident heading into the playoffs. A Game 1 loss to the Orlando Magic further gave reasons to doubt (myself included) if the Bucks would ever return to the team they were pre-COVID. Games 2-5 saw a different team that stepped up and took care of business. Maybe the Bucks were back after all, but as the great Lee Corso once said, "Not so fast my friend." The next two games have left me with a reaction that can only be summarized by Coach Budenholzer himself.
So what exactly has gone wrong here? To me, it seems to be a combination of some poor play from otherwise consistent players, good game planning by other teams, and poor decision-making from Budenholzer. I think the most glaring example of poor preparation from the Bucks this year is how they've handled the infamous wall defense that Toronto made popular to help advance them to the Finals. Now other teams are adopting this strategy of having their main defender drop off Giannis with eager helpers on either side to deter any drives the Freak may get. Too often Giannis would handle the ball up top with shooters on either side, but without any player movement, a Giannis drive and kick even into the wall only draws so much help, and isn't difficult to rotate to defend the open shooter. It's been 15 months since this defense was first implemented and the Bucks haven't been consistent in beating it. Occasionally, Giannis can still attack through this "wall", but that speaks more to his abilities than the effectiveness of this strategy. Since the Bucks aren't seeming to add more action and cuts into sets when Giannis has the ball, I would love to see them use him more off-ball around the hoop. Giannis is quick and smart enough where a good screen can give him solid inside position to score. Conversely, having him cut towards the hoop can draw extra attention and free up shooters with smart ball movement and spacing. Too often it feels like Giannis has the ball outside the three-point line and is forcing his way in. Instead, I think the Bucks should be trying to get him the ball deeper in the defense and work the offense from the inside out.
Another potential area for concern is defending the stretch 5s. We saw in the Magic series that stretch big men like Nikola Vucevic could torch the Bucks. Certain schemes like having either Lopez at the center works nicely for plays around the rim, but when defending pick and pops, if the guard gets around and draws help, a simple kick and either the Lopez's are too slow to close out or get burned by a shot fake. This combined with not having a versatile big outside of Giannis or DJ Wilson will make for interesting matchups later in the playoffs.
Another issue for the Bucks this series is they are playing the Miami Heat who are the scrappiest team in the NBA this year. This team has no big offensive superstar like other title favorites but is instead comprised of role players who play within themselves and lock in on defense. Jimmy Butler is the epitome of a "chip on the shoulder" player who is as feisty as it gets. Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic help keep the offense moving while role players like Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder, and Tyler Herro space the floor and play defense. Overall this team has a massive underdog mentality with Butler at the helm, and once they get momentum, they can be extremely difficult to beat.
Lastly, I think Budenholzer has done a pretty poor job of managing the team so far. Obviously he has churned out great regular seasons, but the problem is he coaches the playoffs still like a regular-season game. This year he played players sparingly, with only Giannis averaging more than 30 minutes a game. That's a solid strategy, think long term about your player's health and realize the season is a marathon, not a sprint. However, in the playoffs, you need to be more aggressive in giving your best players minutes and maximizing lineups. In game 2, Khris Middleton was +18 when on the floor. He only played 33 minutes. Already down 1-0, Budenholzer was selective to play his second-best player and someone who made the team better. Other times he has changed lineups mid-scoring runs or simply played entire lineups of bench players. That combined with seeing the Bucks trying to run the same offense despite planning from the opponents leads to some doubt on whether Coach Bud can adjust in this series.
Overall I think the Bucks still can contend for a title. While Giannis has still been great, other role players who were much better in the regular season have yet to find their bubble footing. While hope may be fleeting, there are some signs for optimism. There is a reason the Bucks were the best team in the regular season and that is because they are when operating smoothly, a really good team. This series against the Heat is far from over. In a cruel twist of irony, the Bucks found themselves up 2-0 last year only to drop four straight. Maybe this year they can turn the tables and win four straight themselves. All it will take is some Budenholzer adjustments, role players starting to hit more shots, and just a tiny bit of Disney magic.
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