A Spring Training is now fully under way, roster questions are starting to take shape for the Twins. Who will win the 5th starting pitcher spot? What will the end of the bullpen look like? Will the Twins keep a third catcher on the roster? While Minnesota's starting nine is pretty well set in stone, these questions do remain. What do I think the roster could look like on Opening Day?
STARTING ROTATION
The starting rotation's top four spots are pretty well set, barring injury or a horrendous showing in spring training from Homer Bailey. While I could see Odorizzi and Maeda possibly being switched, I fully anticipate Jose Berrios starting for the Twins on Opening Day, and Homer Bailey sliding into the fourth spot. The fifth spot, however, is up in the air. The veteran Jhoulys Chacin is battling youngsters Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and Lewis Thorpe for the final spot. While the Twins are pretty high on the three youngsters (especially Thorpe), I would give a slight edge to Chacin at this point. While Chacin's 2019 was a disaster (6.01 ERA), he was an above-average pitcher in the two years prior. I have faith that Wes Johnson will be able to coax a better performance out of the 32-year-old. Furthermore, if Chacin crashes and burns, it's not a problem to just release him and call somebody else up. If the Twins handed the job to one of the young guns, it uses up service time and potentially minor league options. This is why I think Chacin will be able to do enough to earn the 5th spot out of spring training.
BULLPEN
The bullpen's top six guys are pretty well set (again, barring injury). I would put the Twins' top six against any other top six in the league. While they don't have the name recognition of some other teams, don't be mistaken: this is one of the very best bullpens in baseball. However, the last two spots are rather up in the air. The Twins could possibly keep one of the young starters up in one of these last two spots, or they could go the route I am suggesting: roll with Cody Stashak and Matt Wisler. Wisler was signed to a big-league contract this off-season, so if he doesn't make the squad he can't be sent down. That's the main reason I would guess they'll at least give him a chance. Stashak is another interesting young arm, who posted very solid numbers in 25.0 MLB innings in 2019. He's got excellent control, he keeps the ball in the park, and he gets plenty of swinging strikes. I don't know for sure if he'll make the squad right off the bat, but he's got big potential and we will see at least some of him in 2020.
CATCHERS
Mitch Garver is the clear-cut starter here. He will split some time with a backup, as this Twins regime has shown that rest and recovery is a huge priority. However, Garver showed last year that he is hands-down the best hitting catcher in MLB. Furthermore, Garver improved his defense dramatically, going from a huge negative to a small positive. He has an excellent approach at the plate and hits the ball as hard as almost anyone in the league. These two things will help him try to repeat his performance from 2019. While he may not break 30 home runs again (due to possible changes in the ball), I do not anticipate much of a fall-off for Garver.
Backing up Garver will be Alex Avila. Avila has been a quality veteran for a long time, though never a real star. He hits righties very well, and lefties very poorly. This makes him an ideal partner for Garver, who absolutely destroys left-handed pitching (even if he does pretty well vs. righties, too). I would anticipate Garver starting 100-110 games and Avila getting most of the rest of the games this year. Willians Astudillo will be in the mix as well. The last roster spot really comes down to Astudillo versus Jake Cave to me. While I think Jake Cave probably deserves the spot, Astudillo may get the nod due to his ability to catch and having more minor league options.
INFIELD
There are no question marks in the infield. Miguel Sano has moved to first base to accommodate the addition of Josh Donaldson. Luis Arraez is set at second base. Jorge Polanco is an all-star shortstop. Josh Donaldson is probably the third-best player in the league at the hot corner. Ehire Adrianza and Marwin Gonzalez will back up these guys (Gonzalez for the corners and Adrianza for the middle). This infield should be a little bit better on defense than the Twins were last year, and will be one of the top three or four infields at the plate. Astudillo could also play a little infield if there was a need.
OUTFIELD
The only outfield question mark is whether Jake Cave will make the team. If I'm picking the Twins' best roster, he's on it. Gonzalez is better as an infielder than he is as an outfielder, so it would be prudent to have a true fourth outfielder. Cave is also an excellent hitter (he actually posted a few points higher of an OPS than Rosario last year). However, Astudillo may be the pick due to his ability to catch. We'll see. The rest of the outfield is set in stone, as Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario will return again. Buxton is recovering from shoulder surgery still, but should be ready for Opening Day. Buxton (pre-injury) and Kepler really had things figured out last year, and both of them still have room for growth. They are also both among the best defenders at their positions in the league. A healthy Buxton is a 5-WAR player even if he posts a below-average OPS- his defense is that good. As far as Rosario goes, you know what you're getting at this point. He's going to be a slightly below-average defender, he's going to post an OPS slightly above .800, he'll hit right around 30 home runs, and he won't take any walks. He'll drive you nuts by swinging at terrible pitches, and then he'll tomahawk an eye-level fastball over the big wall in right-center in a big moment. He's not as good as many Twins fans think, but if he's the 8th or 9th best hitter in your lineup (which he is), you're in very, very good shape.
As spring goes on, I'll probably do one or two more of these. What do you think the Twins should do? Do you think Astudillo or Jake Cave should make the roster? Let me know in the comments!
Astudillo NEEDS to be there!